The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) publishes its report on the 2026 initial budgets of the General Government, in which it revises its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and identifies a risk of non-compliance with national and European expenditure rules in 2026 amid high uncertainty.
Specifically, AIReF has revised downward its growth forecast for 2026 by 0.1 percentage points, to 2.3%, and has raised its projection for the public deficit for the full year by 0.6 percentage points, to 2.6% of GDP. In this context, AIReF foresees a risk of non-compliance with both the national and European expenditure rules as early as 2026.
