The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) published today the Report on Budget Execution, Public Debt, and the Expenditure Rule for 2026 for General Government, a key report in the fiscal oversight cycle in which it updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and analyzes the risk of noncompliance with fiscal rules. The report revises upward the forecast for growth in net spending (excluding revenue measures) from 5.8% in May to 6.4%, well above the 3.5% committed to in the Medium-Term Fiscal and Structural Plan (PFEMP). This level of spending far exceeds the path committed to in the PFEMP, which complicates compliance with fiscal commitments in the coming years.
The report also highlights once again the differences between the national and European fiscal frameworks. Compliance with the European framework in 2026 will depend, in part, on the application of the safeguard clause and the European Commission’s assessment of the energy measures notified by Spain, which could shift the adjustment requirements to 2027 and 2028. In contrast, the national expenditure rule would require additional measures as early as 2026. These differences affect both the timing and the intensity of the measures needed to ensure sustainability and highlight once again the need for a medium-term fiscal strategy that ensures consistent and coordinated compliance with fiscal rules and promotes greater alignment between the national and European fiscal frameworks.