The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility publishes the Report on the Initial Budgets of the Public Administrations (AAPP) 2025, in which it updates its macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts. In the macroeconomic area, AIReF maintains a GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025, without incorporating the effect of the trade war or the impact of uncertainty. However, it has done a separate exercise in which it estimates that this increase in uncertainty could subtract up to 0.5 points from GDP this year, if it is not corrected quickly.
In the fiscal area, AIReF incorporates the impact of the measures approved since the last report, including those aimed at mitigating the effects of the DANA, as well as the information on the 2024 close, and maintains the deficit forecast for the general government sector as a whole at 2.7% of GDP in 2025. In addition, it estimates that primary expenditure net of revenue measures will grow by 4.6% in 2025, nine tenths of a percentage point above the PFEMP commitment.
