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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Public Administrations debt could have reached 30pp less had the expenditure rule been applied. Only available in spanish

    Documentos relacionados: Documento divulgativo Regla de Gasto Presentación Impacto de la Regla de Gasto en las Finanzas Públicas Ndp Impacto de la Regla de Gasto en la sostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas

    Working Paper 5/2015 Modeling interest payments for macroeconomic assessment

    Gráfico de análisis.

    In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of interest payments by the Government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of five elements: the initial outstanding amounts of debt, the expected primary funding needs, … Read more

    Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

    This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more

    Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF 2

    Access to Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Related documents: Executive Summary – Report on the macroeconomic forecasts in the 2016 Draft State General Budget Press release Presentation Graphs