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    AIReF English

    “Our mission is to guarantee effective compliance of the financial sustainability principle by the General Goverment”

    Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions 2016-07-21

    Related documents: Working Paper 2-2016. Redistribution, risk-sharing and stabilization of income per capita of households by regions

    Report on compliance with the Budget Stability and debt targets and with the expenditure rule 2016 by the different public administrations

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF 2

    Access to Report on compliance with the Budget Stability and debt targets and with the expenditure rule 2016 by the different public administrations

    AIReF has revised upwards its projection for the general government deficit ratio to a range between 4,1% and 4,7% of GDP, depending on the implementation of the measures committed by the Government

    Rueda de prensa en la AIReF

    Report on expected compliance with the 2016 budget stability, government debt and expenditure rule targets by the Public Administrations Presentación

    Working Paper 4/2015. Integrated model of short-term forecasting of the Spanish economy (MIPred model)

    This paper presents a methodology for predicting in real-time GDP and its demand components simultaneously. The model consists of a set of dynamic factor models for both GDP and its demand components, plus a balancing procedure to ensure the transversal consistency of these forecasts, thus providing a consistent set of estimates based on the statistically … Read more

    Working Paper 3/ 2015: Quarterly regional GDP flash estimates for the Spanish economy (METCAP model)

    In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate on a quarterly basis the GDP of the different regions of Spain, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. In this way, the paper offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business … Read more

    Report on expected compliance with the 2015 budget stability, government debt and expenditure rule targets by the public administrations in Spain

    José Luis Escrivá, presidente de la AIReF 2

    Access to Report on expected compliance with the 2015 budget stability, government debt and expenditure rule targets by the public administrations in Spain Related documents: Report’s press release Recommendations’ press release Executive Summary Presentation Graphs

    Working Paper 2/2014 Spanish Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

    This note develops an overarching debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework, encompassing three of its main dimensions: (i) a traditional (deterministic) sustainability exercise, based on a simple accounting application involving the debt accumulation equation; (ii) an assessment of the realism of the assumptions underlying the deterministic debt projections; and (iii) a stochastic exercise aimed at understanding … Read more

    Report on the Projects and Main Budgetary Aspects of Public Administrations

    The 2015 stability target (i.e. 4.2 per cent) appears as very challenging and requires a strict implementation of the presented Budget. In agreement with the requirements stated in its Organic Law, AIreF has assessed the adequacy to the 2015 stability and debt targets and expenditure rule  embedded in the State Draft Budget and the main … Read more