Working Paper 5/2015 Modeling interest payments for macroeconomic assessment

October 28, 2015

In this paper we present a methodology designed to estimate the future path of interest payments by the Government. The basic idea is to represent in a compact way the joint dynamics of debt liabilities and interest payments as a function of five elements: the initial outstanding amounts of debt, the expected primary funding needs, the expected yield curves and the expected issuance strategy to be followed by the government. The procedure is amenable to scenario-based simulation and produces a detailed representation of the debt term structure. We provide results for the period 2015-2025.